The Martingale Strategy – How Risky It Is to Double Up Your Wager

A couple years back in an Irish Casino, I was watching this guy of a Roulette Table, and he said that he had this system and couldn't lose (betting on Red), as he started his wager at €10. And if it came up Black, he would just double up each time he lost, simple as that.

For the first 20 minutes, he was crushing it! He won a few small bets, lost a few small bets, doubled it, and got it back. He was maybe up €50 and was buying drinks for everyone, he felt like it.

Then came 5 consecutive black outcomes. Now his wager of €10 doubled to €20, then to €40, then to €80, then to €160 then to €320. He was sweating now because he would have to place a wager of €640. He looked at his watch, then looked at the betting table and then looked at me.

“Well, it has to come up red sooner or later”, he said.

I didn't reply. He placed his wager of €640 down.

Black again.

He stood up. Walked away. Didn't say a word. Seven hundred and fifty quid down in fifteen minutes, chasing a tenner.

That is the Martingale strategy in a nutshell. It looks beautiful on paper. In real life? It'll eat you alive.

What Is the Martingale Strategy, Really?

Let's strip it down. The Martingale system is a betting progression where you double your stake after every loss. The idea is that when you eventually win – and the theory says you will – that single win covers all your previous losses and leaves you with a profit equal to your original bet.

Here's how it looks with a €10 starting bet:

You've wagered €70 to win €10. But sure look, you're up. That's the logic.

Now here's what happens when the wheel doesn't cooperate:

You've just staked over two and a half grand to win a tenner. And if you'd lost that eighth spin? You'd be down €2,550 with no way to recover unless you had another €2,560 in your pocket and a table that would take it.

Where Did This Madness Come From?

The Martingale system dates back to 18th-century France. The name might come from the Provençal expression “jouga a la martegalo” – which, funnily enough, means “to play in an absurd and incomprehensible way”.

There's also a story about a London casino owner named John H. Martindale who used to wander the floor encouraging punters to double their bets after losses. Whether that's true or not, it's a good story. And it fits. Because the only person who benefits from you doubling your bets is the house.

The Math That Ends the Dream

This is where the dream ends in a wall of math.

A European roulette wheel has 37 spaces: 18 of which are red, 18 are black, and one space is a green zero. If you place a bet on “red”, then out of 37 spins, you will win 18 times (48.65%). You will lose 19 (51.35%) of the time.

This small difference in winning and losing on European roulette wheels is due to an extra space which is the “house edge”. On every spin of the wheel, there will be a 2.7% house edge created through this added space on the wheel.

So what does this mean for the Martingale betting system?

It means that if your bets are each €100.00, then the casino expects to win €2.70 of each bet you place through the use of the house edge. This house edge is present whether you are betting a flat amount or doubling your bet after a loss.

Note: The odds don't change; only the way in which your losses occur changes. In the Martingale betting system, you make small, consistent losses up until you make one large loss that wipes out all of your previous winnings and then some.

What's the Probability of a Losing Streak?

This is the part where most people get stuck because they think to themselves, “Of course, I will probably lose 10 times in a row”. 

To clarify, here is the data in terms of the odds of getting multiple losses (in a European wheel with a single zero):

• 5 losses in a row. Approximate probability of occurring in any Spinhit = 3.6%. After 100 Spins or more the outcome of hitting 5 consecutive losses is going to be a little over 90%. 

• 7 losses in a row. Approximate probability of occurring in any Spin = 0.94%. If you played 500 total times after spinning the wheel you would expect to see this situation about half of the time.

• 10  losses in a row. Approximate probability of occurring in any Spin = 0.13%. If you have 1000 total spins you would expect to see this event about 25-30% of the time.
  

Play long enough, and you will hit a streak that breaks you. It's not a matter of if. It's when.

The Two Killers: Table Limits and Your Wallet

In a perfect world – infinite money, no betting limits – the Martingale would technically work. But we don't live in that world.

Table Limits

Every roulette table has a maximum bet. Walk into any casino in Ireland or log into any online site, and you'll see it. Maybe it's €1,000. Maybe €5,000. But it's there.

Let's say you're at a table with a €1,000 limit. You start with €10. After six losses, your next bet would be €640. After seven losses, you'd need to bet €1,280 – but you can't. The table stops you.

You're now stuck with a €1,270 loss and no way to continue the sequence. The strategy is dead. The casino wins.

Bankroll Constraints

Even without table limits, your bankroll isn't infinite. Most of us have a number. A line we don't cross.

To survive 10 losses in a row with a €10 base bet, you need €10,230 in your account. That's just to cover the losses. The 11th bet would be €10,240. So you'd need over €20,000 to play one full sequence.

Are you really going to risk twenty grand to win a tenner?

The Psychology That Keeps People Hooked

The Martingale isn't just a mathematical trap. It's a psychological one too.

The Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler thinks he can outsmart the odds the wheel. As soon as there have been 4 black spins in a row, his mind begins to think: “Red is due. That has to come up now.”

However, the roulette wheel does not think that the last 4 spins have any effect on the next spin, nor does it remember previous spins or predict the future because of them.

The chance of getting a red on the next spin is 18/37 or the same as it was on the first spin.

In 1913, in Monaco Casino the ball landed on black 26 times in a row. Punters lost fortunes betting on red, convinced it had to change. It didn't. Not until the 27th spin.

If you had been using the Martingale system and started betting on red 10 euros for 26 bets, after losing that many times you would now be down 134 million euros and would need to have a higher table limit than the GDP of a small nation in order to continue betting on the last spin.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

You are currently down €1,270 and have reached the point of only doubling your loss and have been doing so over the last hour. The reasonable side of your brain says, “You need to stop”.  

However, another part of your brain says, “You can’t quit now; you’ve already lost too much. If I just play one more time, I’m sure to win back what I’ve lost”.  

This feeling is referred to as the sunk cost fallacy; a common reason for players to continue to gamble despite continuing to lose; hence, this leads to Martina gamblers walking away with nothing at all.

Martingale Variations: Many Hats; One Problem

Various players are trying to “fix” Martingale by creating variations of it. Let's take a look at some of the most popular variations.

Reverse Martingale (Paroli)

With this version of Martingale you double when you win instead of when you lose and you ride winning streaks and protect your bankroll when you are on a losing streak.

Example: win €10, win €20, win €40, lose €10 and start again.

This is much less risky than a regular Martingale, and if you like to play it can be fun. However, you still do not gain an advantage over the house edge, and when you hit a losing streak, you start again with €10 and do not recover anything

Grand Martingale

This is like a regular Martingale but with much larger increases. You double the amount of your previous bet plus one more unit.

You would start by betting €10. If you lose your bet you would bet €25; if you lose your bet again you would bet €55. Your goal is to recover faster when you win.

The downside is that after losing five times, you're betting over €200 to win back only a €10 profit. This is not an improvement over a regular Martingale, but it's a quicker way to go broke.

Mini Martingale

The Mini Martingale is a betting strategy for gamblers who want to limit the number of times you double your original bet before quitting. In general, setting a limit will help ensure you do not lose a large part of your bankroll if you experience a long run of losses.

However, if you experience a long run of losses, you may lose more than what you have set as your limit and you may never recover from this amount. Also, the house edge is still present, slowly eroding your bankroll while playing.

D'Alembert and Fibonacci

Both of these betting strategies have a progressive betting strategy that progresses very slowly compared to the Mini Martingale strategy.

In the D'Alembert system, if you lose a bet, you will increase your bet by one unit (i.e., $1, $2, $3, and so on) and if you win a bet, you will reduce your bet by one unit. In the Fibonacci Strategy, the increments of your bet will follow the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... etc.), whereby each number is the total of the previous two. 

Neither of these strategies will affect the house edge; they only affect the amount of enjoyment derived from the experience of losing money in the casino.

What Happens When You Actually Try It

I ran some simulations (nothing fancy, just a bit of code to see what happens). The results were predictable but still sobering.

100 Spins

In a short time frame, Martingale will produce many small victories. A couple euros won as you go along may make you feel smart and may lead you to believe you have found “something”. Thus is the trap of Martingale, it wins many small victories but loses large numbers infrequently – the occasional (rare) loss will cause you to lose everything.

1,000 Games 

After 1,000 games, the likelihood of having a large losing streak will increase significantly. Most simulations will result in more than 50% of players losing their entire bankroll after playing 1,000 games. 

10,000 Games 

At 10,000 games, it will be almost impossible to avoid having an extensive losing streak. In 100 simulations, 87 resulted in players losing everything; the 13 winning runs provided decent profit, but not enough to offset the losses incurred due to the other 87 winning runs.

Why Casinos Enjoy Martingale Bettors

People frequently inquire why casinos do not prohibit the Martingale strategy if it is considered hazardous. The answer is straightforward; casinos do not have any reason to do so. Casinos enjoy Martingale bettors because they are willing to wager large amounts and consequently provide the casino with many high-stakes wagers. 

In time, Martingale bettors will lose money and be ground down just as any other gambler will due to the casino's house edge of approximately 2.7%. Therefore, Martingale does not pose any threat to the casino but rather poses a risk to the bettor. 

As long as the bettor continues to wager in accordance with the casino's rules, the casino will allow the bettor to continue doubling their bet; likewise, they know the mathematics behind this strategy and fully expect the bettor will eventually lose all of their money.

Is Martingale Viable for Sports Betting? 

Some gamblers try to apply the Martingale strategy to sports betting by betting heavily on large, heavily-favoured teams at low odds; however, this is difficult because there is no such thing as a fixed house edge within the sports betting industry, and the outcome is unpredictable.

A 1.40 favourite will lose between 10-20% of the time; therefore, if you continue to double your bet after every loss, you may eventually go bankrupt due to the number of upsets you experience. Additionally, the majority of bookmakers have limits on their clients' accounts, and if they see you betting large amounts regularly, they will also start limiting your account.

Therefore, this strategy is not only at risk regarding the amount of money you invest in the Martingale betting strategy; it is also at risk regarding your access to the sports betting industry.

Word of caution regarding responsible gambling

We are an authorized Irish casino and, therefore, have an ethical obligation to be truthful with you about the Martingale system; it is NOT a method of beating the odds but rather a method of losing money rapidly.

While it may be temporarily enjoyable to attempt Martingale wagering with a small amount of money and for a very short time period just to see how it works, it should NOT be thought of as a long-term ‘profit-generating’ technique, nor will it ever produce a ‘return’ on your investment... 

It is capable, however, of producing economic damage IF you do not use proper precautions prior to engaging in this type of gaming activity... 

If you are going to participate in gaming activities using the Martingale wager as your wagering strategy, remember to:

Before starting, establish a specific dollar amount to be utilized for ALL of your gaming activity and be prepared to stay with this number/project.

Stay true to your budget; do NOT exceed the amount you have budgeted to use while gaming.

Never attempt to win back previous losses by trying to recover your losses with additional plays; once you attempt to “win back” your previous losses, you place yourself in an extremely dangerous situation concerning your personal financial situation.

Take time away from the gaming table(s) when you are not winning; when you leave the gaming table for even one day (e.g., tomorrow), the gaming tables will still be available to play.

Remember that gaming is a source of entertainment, NOT an income; if you are not having FUN while gaming, DO NOT participate again, and; if you feel your gaming has become more than a simple source of entertainment (e.g., chasing, borrowing, hiding, lying), STOP! Talk to someone. In addition, take advantage of the available deposit limit(s) and self-exclusion tools; ask for help (there is no shame in asking for assistance). 

Concluding thoughts about the Martingale system

It’s theoretically a good strategy, in theory. It’s designed to work when players have an unlimited amount of cash on hand to wager, as long as there aren’t any restrictions on how much they can wager on each game.

In practice, however, I wouldn’t recommend it at all. This method of betting is extremely high-risk because you are trying to achieve a quick, small profit when the potential exists for you to lose much more than what you originally wagered.

There is plenty of statistical evidence to support this method; however, keep in mind that the house will always maintain an edge, and after an extended period of consistent losing (remember that it can take only one bet to cross the threshold where you can no longer recover) you will lose everything you’ve wagered.

Using this method of betting is like that guy you’ve met in a bar who is convinced he has developed a fool-proof system to pick winning horses. This sounds good while you’re consuming alcohol, but you will soon learn that it was just a way for him to lose his money.

Feel free to use this system for entertainment purposes only, with money you can afford to lose; do not rely on this method for long-term results. Remember, the house always has the edge and keeps the casinos in business at your expense!

FAQs on Martingale Strategy

Q: Is Martingale strategy legal to use?

A: Yes! Casino's allow it. They don't have any reason to ban it because it doesn't hurt their profits.

Q: Do you win with Martingale strategy for long term play?

A: The Martingale strategy may have some short-term success; however, in the long-run, the casino's house edge will guarantee you will lose.

Q: What is the most dangerous risk of using Martingale strategy?

A: The most dangerous risk of using the Martingale strategy is the exponential increase in bet sizes. A losing streak can wipe out your entire bankroll in one bet!

Q: Are there other ways to reduce your risk?

A: Flat betting provides the safest way to bet. You may also find some success using the D'Alembert or Fibonacci betting systems; however, none of these systems can exclude the house edge from the outcomes of your bets.

Q: Does the use of Martingale work online with roulette?

A: Yes. The same house edge as well as the table limits for table games exist online; therefore risk is exactly the same.

Q: Should a New Player Be Using Martingale Strategy?

A: No! Any new player should focus on bankroll management and responsible gambling prior to trying out any type of betting system such as the Martingale strategy. Using Martingale strategy will encourage you to chase your losses, which is one of the most dangerous gambler's habits.  

VivatBet Ireland is an Irish licensed casino. 

Please gamble responsibly. 

Set limits & stay safe! 

If you see someone at the table doubling their bets; why not buy them a drink, and tell them the story of the guy in Dublin!